Dec 17 ($35) Transformer - Round 5 Results and Final Projections

This game had 104 winners in Round 5, in a pot that 332 people contributed to. That's a 31.33% win rate (about 5% higher than average, so the higher buy-in continues to make a difference to success rate). As per usual in Round 5, a higher percentage and number of people won than in Round 4, reflecting people catching up with the lower goal.  Winners got $41.90 each and people who have won each round have now made $183.37.  The average for a Round 5 pot is $153, so there is a little bonus in sheer dollars, but not as much when you consider the amount above stake isn't as great as in a normal Transformer. The game lost about 2.06% of players this round, for a natural attrition total of 10.99%.  Both numbers are a little lower than average. 

Now for the fun projections. 137 people qualified for the final round (although that number may change a bit).  That's 27.88% of the people that started the game and 31.33% of the people who were playing in Round 5. Both of these numbers are a little lower than average for the conventional game - weaker players in this game despite the higher stakes.

If all 137 people make 10% by the end of Round 6, a winning share should be about $175. In the games that have already ended, about 83% of the people actually make it, which would bring the winning share to about $210. These numbers look really good if you're playing a normal Transformer, but in this game you have to beat $175 if you pre-pay and $210 if you pay monthly to make a profit on this game. 

Good luck, everyone. 

(Note: I write posts about the stats for all the games that are running, not just the ones I'm playing in, but my posts only appear in the feeds for my games.  If you are in other games, feel free to post my blog there so people can see how they are doing.  I'm currently in the Dec 2 and Feb 18 games.  If you add me as a friend, you will get a notification about all the stats posts I make.  You can also join the Transformers Data Nerds group: https://www.dietbetter.com/community/groups/7-transformers-data-nerds and our Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DietBet.March/ ).

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Games played

9

Weight lost

-29.3%

Winnings

$1830.64

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